My Thoughts on the NBA Finals Part 2

 The 2011 NBA Finals - Part 2

Basketball is a game of runs, and the Dallas Mavericks finished game two on a 22-5 run, stunning the Miami Heat on their home court and evening the series up at 1-1. The Heat were up 88-73 with 7:13 left to play and it appeared nothing would stop Miami from heading to Dallas for the next three games with a 2-0 series lead. A vintage performance from Dwyane Wade, which included an array of step backs, acrobatic layups, and forceful dunks and a versatile effort from LeBron James (though in no way prolific) gave the Miami crowd reason to be confident when a Wade three pointer gave them a 15 point lead and forced a Dallas timeout. Despite blowing the defensive coverage and leaving Mario Chalmers wide open for the game tying three with twenty-five seconds left, Jason Terry was a catalyst in getting the Mavericks back into the game. He scored six straight points out of the timeout and brought Dallas back to life. From there, Dirk Nowitzki did what he has consistently done this postseason – close the game out. Nowitzki scored Dallas’ final 9 points, including the game winning finger roll using his injured left hand with 3.6 seconds to go. Miami’s inability to run any semblance of an offensive set prevented them from generating a good scoring chance against the Mavericks defense. With the game tied at 90, and with approximately forty seconds to go, Wade settled for an off balanced three. When you have Dwyane Wade and LeBron James on the court, two of the very best at attacking the basket and either scoring or drawing contact, why are you settling for poor shots? Nowitzki replied with an uncontested three and following Chalmers’ tying three, he embarrassed Chris Bosh by spinning away from him and finishing at the rim. Wade’s last second shot hit back iron and Dallas won the game 95-93. The Mavericks improbable comeback will undoubtedly sting Miami and should set up a memorable game three on Sunday night in Dallas.

Shawn Marion played a great game, contributing 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists, all while guarding LeBron James for the majority of his time on the floor. Jason Kidd shot poorly (2/7 FG, 2/5 3PT,) but he impacted the game without needing shots, grabbing 8 rebounds and dishing five assists. Tyson Chandler, Dallas’ interior presence, made the best of his limited touches, scoring 13 points and grabbing 7 rebounds, including 4 offensive boards. DeShawn Stevenson received an eight minute increase in playing time from game one and he responded positively, making 3 three pointers and forcing 3 steals. The Mavericks role players filled their roles admirably. When they play this well, it makes it much harder for the opposing team to compete. Chris Bosh was particularly ineffective, shooting 4/16 from the field and the Heat’s depth issues were easily identifiable today, even considering Mike Bibby’s three point outburst. The common perception in the NBA is that role players perform better at home. Nowitzki must continue his historically efficient play to give Dallas a legitimate chance at winning the series, but if the Mavericks role players can produce consistently, the Heat could be in trouble - regardless of how well Wade and LeBron perform.

My Thoughts on the Stanley Cup Finals Part 1

The 2011 Stanley Cup Finals - Part 1

The Vancouver Canucks established themselves as the only dominant team in the NHL this season. Pick out the other contending teams (Washington, Philadelphia, Detroit, San Jose, Boston) and each had a discernible flaw that restricted their ability to make the substantial leap from good to great. Over the eighty-two game regular season the Canucks consistently outclassed their opponents in all facets of the game; they led the league in goals for (258) and goals against (180) and maintained a steady business like efficiency even when they experienced injuries to key players. They easily finished with the league’s best record and were awarded the President’s Trophy for the first time in franchise history. However, regular season success would not appease Canucks Nation; they would be only satisfied with postseason triumphs and a parade down Robson Street. 

The Canucks enter the Stanley Cup Finals as the clear favorite. The Bruins are a big tough team and Tim Thomas was arguably the league’s best goaltender this season, but they cannot match the Canucks offensive or defensive depth. Boston’s anemic power play (5/67, 7.5% in 19 games played,) has been at the center of many jokes this postseason. If the Bruins are unable to generate goals with the man advantage they will struggle to compete in the series. On the other side of the ice, Bruins captain Zdeno Chara and his partner Dennis Seidenberg will likely spend most of their ice time matched up against the offensively lethal Sedin twins and will try to replicate what Predators defencemen Shea Weber and Ryan Suter did so well against the twins in the second round, limiting them to just 7 points combined in six games. 

The task is nearly complete; the Vancouver Canucks are now just three wins (following last night’s 1-0 home win,) away from hoisting hockey’s Holy Grail and just as they have all season, the Canucks will not stop working until they are left as the last team standing.

My Thoughts On the NBA Playoffs Part 2

First Round Recap   

The Grizzlies upset of the top seeded Spurs capped off an exciting first round of the NBA Playoffs. Zach Randolph led the way as the upstart Grizzlies became only the second eighth seed in NBA history to knock off a one seed. For Memphis, the win sets up a second round matchup against Oklahoma City (I'll be honest, I would  selfishly prefer Vancouver and Seattle); for San Antonio, a undesirable realization that their days as elite contenders are over. Each  first round series brought an intriguing element to the table every night, even Boston's sweep of the Knicks included Carmelo's historic 42 points - 17 rebound performance and two games that came down to a final shot and Dallas' 4-2 victory over Portland included a memorable and emotional fourth quarter comeback in game four led by Brandon Roy. The second round promises to be even more exciting and provide more great theater.

Eastern Conference

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks

The Bulls eased past the Pacers in five games and while the games were all competitive, Chicago's ability to score late (Derrick Rose) and more importantly defend proved to be too much for Indiana. The Hawks exacted some revenge from last season's second round embarrassment beating the disappointing Orlando Magic in six games. Two seasons removed from an NBA Finals appearance, the Magic have regressed tremendously, their trademark inside-out game plan rendered ineffective by Atlanta's defense. 

 Defensively, the Hawks will have trouble slowing down Derrick Rose. This could be a series in which he goes off and cannot be stopped, as long as he doesn't settle for three pointers. The best battle will occur down low between Atlanta's big men Josh Smith and Al Horford and Chicago's big men Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Chicago's defense is anchored by Noah and will be a worthy challenge for Horford. The Bulls hold a significant rebounding advantage over the Hawks, averaging nearly five extra rebounds per game during the regular season (44.2 rpg - 39.3 rpg). Swingman Luol Deng does everything for the Bulls, his versatility is a major plus as Chicago continues in the playoffs. The only match up in which the Hawks have a distinct advantage is at shooting guard. Perennial All Star Joe Johnson and former sixth man of the year Jamal Crawford will have to be Atlanta's consistent scoring options. For the Hawks to compete they will need a superhuman showing from Johnson and serious defensive lapses from the Bulls, which I believe is unlikely to happen. 

Pick: Chicago in 5

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

This is the series NBA fans have been anticipating since LeBron's "decision", although most figured the winner would advance to the NBA Finals. The Celtics swept the Knicks in the first round and Miami won easily against Philadelphia. Can the Big Three and Company defeat the "team-oriented" Celtics?

The individual match ups are singularly compelling. LeBron James and Paul Pierce meet once again in the postseason, a match up of less importance than in previous seasons (when LeBron was carrying an inadequate Cavaliers team), but a relevant one nonetheless. It will be intriguing to watch who gets the upper hand on a given night. Dwyane Wade's struggles against Boston have been well documented, it will be interesting to see if he continues to be the one to chase Ray Allen off of the off-balls screens Boston consistently use as part of their offense. Wade's field goal percentage was a woeful 28% in four games against the Celtics, down from his season average of 50%. Kevin Garnett remains one of the elite post defenders and how he defends Chris Bosh will have a significant impact on the series. If Bosh can score efficiently and limit Garnett's effectiveness on the glass, the Heat give themselves their best chance at winning the series. The key to the series is the play of point guard Rajon Rondo, who seemed to get his flair back against the Knicks, averaging 19 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 12 assists over Boston's four games. Will Rondo's playmaking abilities knock the Heat onto their heels defensively and hinder their offensive gameplan? Heat/Celtics projects to be a fascinating back and forth series filled with momentum swings and tight finishes.

Pick: Miami in 7

Western Conference

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Lakers were twice surprised by Chris Paul and the Hornets in the first round but the Lakers bigs ultimately made the difference, averaging 7 more rebounds a game than their undersized opponents.Expect more of the same in round 2, as the Lakers big men should exercise their dominance against the Mavericks, who beat the Trail Blazers in six games as well. The Lakers dominated the Mavericks in their final regular season encounter, winning 110-82, and the match ups continue to favor Los Angeles. 

At this point, it's difficult to think any match up would faze Kobe Bryant.The Mavericks will throw an assortment of defenders at the two time Finals MVP in an attempt to slow him down. Jason Terry will get the bulk of the crunch time minutes at the two guard. Over the past 3 seasons the Jet has averaged 18.2 points against the Lakers but the Mavericks are 3-7 in those games. Dirk Nowitzki enjoyed a phenomenal first round against Portland (27 ppg, 7.8 rpg  3.0 apg), but he will be tested physically and defensively in this series, matching up with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Andrew Bynum has been wrecking havoc on the glass, averaging 10.8 rebounds along with 15.2 points and 1.8 blocks in the first round. When Bynum is playing at his best, the Lakers are as close to unstoppable as you will find in this league. The Lakers weakness at point guard will not be exploited by Jason Kidd, who can still be an effective distributor but will not be making many forays into the lane. The Lakers and Mavericks have both qualified for the playoffs every season since 2000-2001, this is the first time they will match up in a best of seven and both sides will want to leave their best impression.

Pick: Los Angeles in 6

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies surprised the basketball world when they knocked off the Spurs, now they move on to face the Thunder, a team that has been billed as San Antonio 2.0. The Thunder knocked the pesky Nuggets in a tightly contested five game series.

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will have to contest with the defense of Thunder big men Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka (who has been a monster since Perkins was acquired at the trade deadline). Randolph wad dominant against the Spurs, averaging 21.5 points and 9.2 rebounds. The Thunder go where Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook take them. Durant is the number one scoring option on the team but the Grizzlies have a few reliable defenders to guard him. Durant will likely see some Tony Allen, Shane Battier, and Sam Young guarding him at one point this series. Westbrook is great when he penetrates and either finishes at the rim or kicks to Durant, James Harden, etc.. he is a hindrance when he settles for mid range jumpers and ceases to run the offense. The Grizzlies won't go quietly but the Thunder have more than enough firepower to stop Cinderella's pumpkin wagon.

Pick: Oklahoma City in 6

My Thoughts On the NBA Playoffs Part 1

Eastern Conference 

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers

Bulls lead 3-0

The Bulls may be in line to sweep the youthful Pacers but it hasn't been as easy had been predicted. The Pacers have successfully challenged the top seed Bulls in each of the first three games, losing each game by 5, 6, and 4 respectively and having the right to rue the results. The key reason for Chicago's 3-0 lead is, to nobody's surprise, Derrick Rose. Despite some inefficient shooting performances (4/18 overall in game 3, 0/9 from three in game 1), Rose has made a habit of drawing fouls, having shot a combined 49 free throws in the first three games at a 90% average and has exhibited the chops of an experienced late game decision maker.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Heat lead 3-0

The Heat can match the Bulls and sweep their first round opponent on Sunday. Apart from the dominant 94-73 game 22 victory, the other two wins have been closely contested. The Heat have been carried by their three headliners: Chris Bosh (21.7 ppg and 9.7 rpg), LeBron James (24.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, and 12 rpg), and Dwyane Wade (21 ppg, 5 apg, and 7.7 rpg - despite suffering from a migraine before game 2). The offensive production from the rest of the roster has been non-existent; the highest scoring performance from one game was 10 points from C Zydrunas Ilgauskas from 5/9 shooting in 16 minutes of play during game three. Philadelphia has a plethora of young and athletic swing men but they have been overburdened in their attempts to stop the Heat's All-Stars. Andre Iguodala has struggled to score, averaging more assists (8.7) than points (6.3) this series.  The Heat are undoubtedly in control of this series, but the second round will prove to be a much tougher test. Will James, Wade, and Bosh get enough help from the rest of the Heatles to compete with the defending Eastern Conference Champions in Round 2? 

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks

Celtics lead 3-0

There seems to be a common theme in the Eastern Conference first round. The higher seed hasn't dominated each game but find themselves ahead 3 games to zero. The Celtics were fortunate to win game 1 and game 2 at home, taking advantage of a poor Carmelo Anthony performance in game 1 and injuries to Amar'e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups in game 2 to jump out to a 2-0 lead. Back in New York for the Knicks first home playoff game in six year, the Celtics annihilated the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Paul Pierce scored 38, Ray Allen scored 32 (8/11 from three), and Rajon Rondo recorded another playoff triple-double (15 points, 20 assists, and 11 rebounds). Carmelo Anthony rebounded from his disastrous Knick playoff debut by almost single handedly stealing a game 2 win. Melo dished out six assists, grabbed 17 rebounds, and scored 42 points. The Celtics true challenge lies elsewhere however, and all eyes are already set on their likely second round opponent: the Miami Heat.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks

Hawks lead 2-1

The Hawks hold a surprising 2-1 lead over the Orlando Magic in the most evenly contested series in the Eastern Conference.  Despite three monster games from Dwight Howard (33.3 ppg, 68% FG, 17.7 rpg, 1.7 bpg) the Magic haven't been able to compete with the depth of Atlanta. The Hawks have five players averaging more than 10 points per game (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford, and Kirk Hinrich), Orlando has two (Howard and Jameer Nelson). Atlanta's decision to not double team Howard in the post has impacted Orlando's abilities from distance. The Magic, who led the NBA this season in three pointers per game, have shot just 26% from three so far in the series. This matchup could easily go either way, it will depend on if Orlando can get Dwight Howard any semblance of help?

Western Conference 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies 

Series tied 1-1

The Spurs should appreciate the period of rest as they are playing in one of two series that have yet to have played a third game. The Grizzlies won game 1 in San Antonio led by their frontcourt of double-double machine Zach Randolph (25 points and 14 rebounds), and Marc Gasol (24 points and 9 rebounds), and the absence of San Antonio's All-Star guard Manu Ginobili. Ginobili returned for game 2 and he led the Spurs with a game high 17 to a six point victory. Tim Duncan was effective but it can be asked if he is  still physically able of a standout performance. Memphis' abundance of depth and rugged players will definitely push the Spurs veterans but it would still shock me if they indeed won four games before San Antonio did. 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets

Lakers lead 2-1

The Lakers game 1 loss seems to be an anomaly; it appears unlikely that the Hornets will win another game this series. Chris Paul's virtuoso 33 point, 14 assist, 7 rebound, 4 steal performance stunned the Lakers on their home court. The loss awoke the Lakers as they bounced back to take game 2, despite a poor showing from Kobe Bryant (11 points, 3/10 FG). Andrew Bynum (17 points and 11 rebounds), Lamar Odom (16 points and 7 rebounds) and the Lakers defense stymied the Hornets attack. A vintage Kobe performance (30 points, 10/20 FG, 6/7 FT) in game 3 in New Orleans gave the Lakers the lead in the series and essentially extinguished all hope that a David West-less Hornets squad could pull of such a major upset.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Mavericks lead 2-1

Dirk Nowitzki has so far had his way with the Blazers defense. Portland has tried numerous different looks to slow Nowitzki down but have been unsuccessful. Dallas won the first two games at home, both close games but expertly closed by Nowitzki and the Mavericks. 37 year old Jason Kidd performed exceptionally well in both home games (21 ppg and 6 apg). Portland responded in game 3, as Brandon Roy made his first positive impact on the series (16 points, 4 assists), and LaMarcus Aldridge continued to score effectively. Picking Portland to win the series was a trendy upset pick within the NBA community and will be still be a relevant point of discussion if they can win game 4 and force a best 2 of 3.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets

Thunder lead 2-0

The Nuggets felt they were hosed in game 1, when a missed offensive goaltending call on Kendrick Perkins would have given them the ball up 1 with under a minute to go. The Thunder didn't leave any chance for doubt in game 2, easily taking out the misfiring Nuggets. The bottom line is, that Thunder have the two best players in the series and while the Nuggets have surplus of NBA able players, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will win games for the Thunder without the need to rely heavily on role players. The Nuggets could catch fire at home but it appears unlikely that the final result will be anything but the the Thunder advancing into round 2.