Saturday, April 23, 2011

My Thoughts On the NBA Playoffs Part 1

Eastern Conference 

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Bulls lead 3-0

The Bulls may be in line to sweep the youthful Pacers but it hasn't been as easy had been predicted. The Pacers have successfully challenged the top seed Bulls in each of the first three games, losing each game by 5, 6, and 4 respectively and having the right to rue the results. The key reason for Chicago's 3-0 lead is, to nobody's surprise, Derrick Rose. Despite some inefficient shooting performances (4/18 overall in game 3, 0/9 from three in game 1), Rose has made a habit of drawing fouls, having shot a combined 49 free throws in the first three games at a 90% average and has exhibited the chops of an experienced late game decision maker.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Heat lead 3-0

The Heat can match the Bulls and sweep their first round opponent on Sunday. Apart from the dominant 94-73 game 22 victory, the other two wins have been closely contested. The Heat have been carried by their three headliners: Chris Bosh (21.7 ppg and 9.7 rpg), LeBron James (24.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, and 12 rpg), and Dwyane Wade (21 ppg, 5 apg, and 7.7 rpg - despite suffering from a migraine before game 2). The offensive production from the rest of the roster has been non-existent; the highest scoring performance from one game was 10 points from C Zydrunas Ilgauskas from 5/9 shooting in 16 minutes of play during game three. Philadelphia has a plethora of young and athletic swing men but they have been overburdened in their attempts to stop the Heat's All-Stars. Andre Iguodala has struggled to score, averaging more assists (8.7) than points (6.3) this series.  The Heat are undoubtedly in control of this series, but the second round will prove to be a much tougher test. Will James, Wade, and Bosh get enough help from the rest of the Heatles to compete with the defending Eastern Conference Champions in Round 2? 

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Celtics lead 3-0
There seems to be a common theme in the Eastern Conference first round. The higher seed hasn't dominated each game but find themselves ahead 3 games to zero. The Celtics were fortunate to win game 1 and game 2 at home, taking advantage of a poor Carmelo Anthony performance in game 1 and injuries to Amar'e Stoudemire and Chauncey Billups in game 2 to jump out to a 2-0 lead. Back in New York for the Knicks first home playoff game in six year, the Celtics annihilated the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Paul Pierce scored 38, Ray Allen scored 32 (8/11 from three), and Rajon Rondo recorded another playoff triple-double (15 points, 20 assists, and 11 rebounds). Carmelo Anthony rebounded from his disastrous Knick playoff debut by almost single handedly stealing a game 2 win. Melo dished out six assists, grabbed 17 rebounds, and scored 42 points. The Celtics true challenge lies elsewhere however, and all eyes are already set on their likely second round opponent: the Miami Heat.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Hawks lead 2-1

The Hawks hold a surprising 2-1 lead over the Orlando Magic in the most evenly contested series in the Eastern Conference.  Despite three monster games from Dwight Howard (33.3 ppg, 68% FG, 17.7 rpg, 1.7 bpg) the Magic haven't been able to compete with the depth of Atlanta. The Hawks have five players averaging more than 10 points per game (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Jamal Crawford, and Kirk Hinrich), Orlando has two (Howard and Jameer Nelson). Atlanta's decision to not double team Howard in the post has impacted Orlando's abilities from distance. The Magic, who led the NBA this season in three pointers per game, have shot just 26% from three so far in the series. This matchup could easily go either way, it will depend on if Orlando can get Dwight Howard any semblance of help?

Western Conference 

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies 
Series tied 1-1

The Spurs should appreciate the period of rest as they are playing in one of two series that have yet to have played a third game. The Grizzlies won game 1 in San Antonio led by their frontcourt of double-double machine Zach Randolph (25 points and 14 rebounds), and Marc Gasol (24 points and 9 rebounds), and the absence of San Antonio's All-Star guard Manu Ginobili. Ginobili returned for game 2 and he led the Spurs with a game high 17 to a six point victory. Tim Duncan was effective but it can be asked if he is  still physically able of a standout performance. Memphis' abundance of depth and rugged players will definitely push the Spurs veterans but it would still shock me if they indeed won four games before San Antonio did. 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Hornets
Lakers lead 2-1

The Lakers game 1 loss seems to be an anomaly; it appears unlikely that the Hornets will win another game this series. Chris Paul's virtuoso 33 point, 14 assist, 7 rebound, 4 steal performance stunned the Lakers on their home court. The loss awoke the Lakers as they bounced back to take game 2, despite a poor showing from Kobe Bryant (11 points, 3/10 FG). Andrew Bynum (17 points and 11 rebounds), Lamar Odom (16 points and 7 rebounds) and the Lakers defense stymied the Hornets attack. A vintage Kobe performance (30 points, 10/20 FG, 6/7 FT) in game 3 in New Orleans gave the Lakers the lead in the series and essentially extinguished all hope that a David West-less Hornets squad could pull of such a major upset.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Mavericks lead 2-1

Dirk Nowitzki has so far had his way with the Blazers defense. Portland has tried numerous different looks to slow Nowitzki down but have been unsuccessful. Dallas won the first two games at home, both close games but expertly closed by Nowitzki and the Mavericks. 37 year old Jason Kidd performed exceptionally well in both home games (21 ppg and 6 apg). Portland responded in game 3, as Brandon Roy made his first positive impact on the series (16 points, 4 assists), and LaMarcus Aldridge continued to score effectively. Picking Portland to win the series was a trendy upset pick within the NBA community and will be still be a relevant point of discussion if they can win game 4 and force a best 2 of 3.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Thunder lead 2-0

The Nuggets felt they were hosed in game 1, when a missed offensive goaltending call on Kendrick Perkins would have given them the ball up 1 with under a minute to go. The Thunder didn't leave any chance for doubt in game 2, easily taking out the misfiring Nuggets. The bottom line is, that Thunder have the two best players in the series and while the Nuggets have surplus of NBA able players, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will win games for the Thunder without the need to rely heavily on role players. The Nuggets could catch fire at home but it appears unlikely that the final result will be anything but the the Thunder advancing into round 2.

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