First Round Recap
The Grizzlies upset of the top seeded Spurs capped off an exciting first round of the NBA Playoffs. Zach Randolph led the way as the upstart Grizzlies became only the second eighth seed in NBA history to knock off a one seed. For Memphis, the win sets up a second round matchup against Oklahoma City (I'll be honest, I would selfishly prefer Vancouver and Seattle); for San Antonio, a undesirable realization that their days as elite contenders are over. Each first round series brought an intriguing element to the table every night, even Boston's sweep of the Knicks included Carmelo's historic 42 points - 17 rebound performance and two games that came down to a final shot and Dallas' 4-2 victory over Portland included a memorable and emotional fourth quarter comeback in game four led by Brandon Roy. The second round promises to be even more exciting and provide more great theater.
Eastern Conference
Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Bulls eased past the Pacers in five games and while the games were all competitive, Chicago's ability to score late (Derrick Rose) and more importantly defend proved to be too much for Indiana. The Hawks exacted some revenge from last season's second round embarrassment beating the disappointing Orlando Magic in six games. Two seasons removed from an NBA Finals appearance, the Magic have regressed tremendously, their trademark inside-out game plan rendered ineffective by Atlanta's defense.
Defensively, the Hawks will have trouble slowing down Derrick Rose. This could be a series in which he goes off and cannot be stopped, as long as he doesn't settle for three pointers. The best battle will occur down low between Atlanta's big men Josh Smith and Al Horford and Chicago's big men Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Chicago's defense is anchored by Noah and will be a worthy challenge for Horford. The Bulls hold a significant rebounding advantage over the Hawks, averaging nearly five extra rebounds per game during the regular season (44.2 rpg - 39.3 rpg). Swingman Luol Deng does everything for the Bulls, his versatility is a major plus as Chicago continues in the playoffs. The only match up in which the Hawks have a distinct advantage is at shooting guard. Perennial All Star Joe Johnson and former sixth man of the year Jamal Crawford will have to be Atlanta's consistent scoring options. For the Hawks to compete they will need a superhuman showing from Johnson and serious defensive lapses from the Bulls, which I believe is unlikely to happen.
Pick: Chicago in 5
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
This is the series NBA fans have been anticipating since LeBron's "decision", although most figured the winner would advance to the NBA Finals. The Celtics swept the Knicks in the first round and Miami won easily against Philadelphia. Can the Big Three and Company defeat the "team-oriented" Celtics?
The individual match ups are singularly compelling. LeBron James and Paul Pierce meet once again in the postseason, a match up of less importance than in previous seasons (when LeBron was carrying an inadequate Cavaliers team), but a relevant one nonetheless. It will be intriguing to watch who gets the upper hand on a given night. Dwyane Wade's struggles against Boston have been well documented, it will be interesting to see if he continues to be the one to chase Ray Allen off of the off-balls screens Boston consistently use as part of their offense. Wade's field goal percentage was a woeful 28% in four games against the Celtics, down from his season average of 50%. Kevin Garnett remains one of the elite post defenders and how he defends Chris Bosh will have a significant impact on the series. If Bosh can score efficiently and limit Garnett's effectiveness on the glass, the Heat give themselves their best chance at winning the series. The key to the series is the play of point guard Rajon Rondo, who seemed to get his flair back against the Knicks, averaging 19 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 12 assists over Boston's four games. Will Rondo's playmaking abilities knock the Heat onto their heels defensively and hinder their offensive gameplan? Heat/Celtics projects to be a fascinating back and forth series filled with momentum swings and tight finishes.
Pick: Miami in 7
Western Conference
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Lakers were twice surprised by Chris Paul and the Hornets in the first round but the Lakers bigs ultimately made the difference, averaging 7 more rebounds a game than their undersized opponents.Expect more of the same in round 2, as the Lakers big men should exercise their dominance against the Mavericks, who beat the Trail Blazers in six games as well. The Lakers dominated the Mavericks in their final regular season encounter, winning 110-82, and the match ups continue to favor Los Angeles.
At this point, it's difficult to think any match up would faze Kobe Bryant.The Mavericks will throw an assortment of defenders at the two time Finals MVP in an attempt to slow him down. Jason Terry will get the bulk of the crunch time minutes at the two guard. Over the past 3 seasons the Jet has averaged 18.2 points against the Lakers but the Mavericks are 3-7 in those games. Dirk Nowitzki enjoyed a phenomenal first round against Portland (27 ppg, 7.8 rpg 3.0 apg), but he will be tested physically and defensively in this series, matching up with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Andrew Bynum has been wrecking havoc on the glass, averaging 10.8 rebounds along with 15.2 points and 1.8 blocks in the first round. When Bynum is playing at his best, the Lakers are as close to unstoppable as you will find in this league. The Lakers weakness at point guard will not be exploited by Jason Kidd, who can still be an effective distributor but will not be making many forays into the lane. The Lakers and Mavericks have both qualified for the playoffs every season since 2000-2001, this is the first time they will match up in a best of seven and both sides will want to leave their best impression.
Pick: Los Angeles in 6
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies surprised the basketball world when they knocked off the Spurs, now they move on to face the Thunder, a team that has been billed as San Antonio 2.0. The Thunder knocked the pesky Nuggets in a tightly contested five game series.
Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will have to contest with the defense of Thunder big men Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka (who has been a monster since Perkins was acquired at the trade deadline). Randolph wad dominant against the Spurs, averaging 21.5 points and 9.2 rebounds. The Thunder go where Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook take them. Durant is the number one scoring option on the team but the Grizzlies have a few reliable defenders to guard him. Durant will likely see some Tony Allen, Shane Battier, and Sam Young guarding him at one point this series. Westbrook is great when he penetrates and either finishes at the rim or kicks to Durant, James Harden, etc.. he is a hindrance when he settles for mid range jumpers and ceases to run the offense. The Grizzlies won't go quietly but the Thunder have more than enough firepower to stop Cinderella's pumpkin wagon.
Pick: Oklahoma City in 6
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