My Thoughts on the NBA Finals

 The 2011 NBA Finals - Part 1

Nearly eleven months ago the most sought after free agent in the history of the NBA uttered the following phrase: “This fall, I’m going to take my talents to South Beach and join the Miami Heat” and singlehandedly altered the NBA landscape for the next decade. LeBron James’ decision to join superstar and personal friend Dwyane Wade and perennial All Star Chris Bosh, who had committed to the Heat the day before, was universally lambasted. James was instantly labeled narcissistic, self-absorbed, and his popularity plummeted faster than a hot air balloon that had exhausted all of its fuel. The decision dominated sports talk radio and television for the weeks following the announcement. Even MJ chimed in, stating "There's no way, with hindsight, I would've ever called up Larry [Bird], called up Magic [Johnson] and said, 'Hey, look, let's get together and play on one team,'" Aside from the direct shots at LeBron’s disposition, there was also a prevailing thought that the experiment was doomed to fail for basketball reasons. Some of the reasons cited included: a lack of size; a lack of depth; questions about Chris Bosh’s ability to fit in; an expected lack of cohesion between James and Wade. 

Today, LeBron James and the Heat have reached the NBA Finals, four wins away from the ultimate prize, the reason that LeBron, Wade, and Bosh joined forces in Miami. The season didn’t go exactly as planned. Despite looking unstoppable at times, (including a stretch from late November to mid-January where they won twenty-one of twenty-two games,) the Heat struggled enough to humor the skeptics who pointed to the same issues they had identified in the summer for Miami’s playoff downfall. The expected decline was never to come: the Heat eased past the 76ers in five, beat up a suddenly old and fragile Celtics team in five, and rebounded from a game 1 blowout to beat the MVP and the Chicago Bulls in five. At the center of the Heat’s success? LeBron James. Through Miami’s fifteen playoff games LeBron is averaging 26 PPG, 8.9 RPG, and 5.5 APG and his defense has been impressive. According to NBA Stats Cube, 47% of James shot attempts have come from inside the paint which opens up the floor for Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Miami’s role players. Bosh, who was criticized incessantly for his perceived struggles, has been excellent thus far, even though his role in the offense is to vacillate from free throw line extended to free throw line extended and take open mid-range jumpers. The biggest difference from Miami’s regular season squad and their Finals team is that they are finally healthy. Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller have joined the big three to form Miami’s crunch time five and have solidified Miami’s depth and elevated Miami to another level.

Standing in Miami’s are the Dallas Mavericks, the antithesis of Heat basketball. Led by the nearly unguardable Dirk Nowitzki, whose only interest is exacting revenge for the title that got away (Nowitzki and the Mavericks blew a 2-0 lead to the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals), the Mavericks play a team brand of basketball which appeals to the basketball purists. Nowitzki’s playoff performances have been nothing short of spectacular; he enters the Finals averaging 28.4 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 2.7 APG all while shooting with unprecedented efficiency: 52% from the field (140/271), 52% from beyond the arc (16/31), and 93% from the free throw line (130/140).  Nowitzki poses a serious matchup problem for Miami and he needs to have a big series for Dallas to seriously contend. Thirty-eight year old point guard Jason Kidd returns to the Finals for the first time since carrying the Nets to consecutive Finals in 2001-2002 and 2002-2003. A vintage series from Kidd is a necessity if the Mavericks expect to beat the Heat. The stunning fact about Kidd is how he influences the game without the need for shots. According to NBA Stats Cube, a whopping 62% of Kidd’s shot attempts these playoffs have been three pointers from above the break (he’s shooting 36% from three,) but for the Mavericks, Kidd’s shooting comes as an added bonus. He’s averaged 7.7 APG and 2.2 SPG in Dallas’ fifteen playoff games and his veteran leadership has been invaluable.

Mavericks and Heat has the potential to be a classic series. The Mavericks are the clear underdog, but they have an advantage in the low post, they shoot more efficiently from beyond the arc, and they have Dirk Nowitzki. The Heat are possibly on the verge of becoming the NBA’s next dynasty, but the first one is always considered the hardest one to attain. It’s hard for me to pick against the Heat, I think they will win the title at home in game six.